Saturday, June 13, 2009

Beware of Pre-Election Polling

Polls taken beyond an election call are generally not very reliable. I seem to recall Dion neck and neck with Harper (or even in the lead) in the summer leading up to the election.

The reason is twofold.

1) Such polls test general apathy/antipathy and historical leanings, as a concrete decision is not imminent. In this instance, Iggy generally stands for some harping from the sidelines, but no real concrete alternative. In an economic downturn being on the harping side will naturally pull polling in your favour, but it should not be confused with actual intention on voting day.

2) Pollsters can afford to push poll or otherwise not be too careful in their methodology, as a true test of accuracy is so far out, there is plenty of time to become more scrupulous.

Of course, that doesn't stop the media from measuring Harper for his political coffin.


  1. Biff - studies show that the majority of people who do telephone polls either lie, say what they think the pollster is leading them to say or refuse as in "none of your business".

    It now takes mnore than 12 calls to get 1 valid answer and then this gets more like 40 to 1 when you are trying to get an age/location/gender sample.

    The polls of today are so unreliable that it is dishonest for the media and pollsters to use them for headlines or even news.

    Unless a poll is peer reviewed to weekd out biased questions; the sample is peer reviewed to week out skewing based on time of day called, etc. and the method of compilation is peer reviewed to week out improper weighting of results NO pollster can claim accuracy anymore.

    Plus or minus is just - who hired you to do the poll so you can get the results trhey are looking for to get the headlines they need to influence the stupid masses.
    Get that Global, Canwest, CBC - we are not ALL stupid.

  2. ''Iggy generally stands for some harping from the sidelines, but no real concrete alternative''

    Even his own grassroots do not know what to expect in the next election, from him.
    Iffy expected to float into the PMs resisdence in the same way he scooped up the Lib leadership, with no contest, the recession would kill Harper.
    That ain't gonna happen.

  3. Another reason is that whoever pays the piper gets the result they want. These latest poll results are a classic example, They were concocted to deflect and discourage the Conservatives from running more of the "Fact Ads" about Count Iggynoranous.

  4. You see the Lib/Dippers posting something like this everywhere:
    ''We have to rid ourselves of this most incompetent government!!! This government will not work with the opposition and refuses to work for Canadians!''

    So I wonder why the Liberals have supported the Harper government over 70 times, supported the budget/stimulus, crime bills....if they are soooooo incompetant? lol

    If Iffy is thinking Dippers will back down,
    he is dead wrong.
    There are a lot of Liberals very angry with some of the policy Iffy has supported, and may very well vote for the only party that did not support the government, NDP.

  5. What was the vote that Chretain called, very late at night, after a late sitting and most opposition mps had left for the wkend. Preston Manning was leader of the Reform then.

  6. one thing people do not like is the stupid fire sale they want on all Canadian Assets.Harper is a sneak, and will not have the Chalk River, going... he shut down the Maple reeactors, that could be fired up and excuse to sell the place. These are some thingns I don't like.

  7. He didn't shut down the maple reactors, they were never fired up because they were found to have the same design flaws that the cheyrnobl reactor had. The liberals wasted billions on these things and they were worthless from day one because they could never meet saftey standards.